NEWS - 20.04.2020


Entering fifth week of lock down

Statistics - as of yesterday, the figures for the UK were

Confirmed Cases -  120,067 – yesterday 5,850

Deaths -  16,060 – yesterday 596

These are registered cases entering a hospital and the ensuing deaths of these people. They do not include deaths in care homes and the community, which I thought to be substantial.

Peak – the rate of growth and the rate of death has now plateaued and continues as it more or less constant level.

Lockdown- The UK's lockdown has now been extended for three more weeks, meaning restrictions will be in place until 7 May at the earliest.

 Lifting Lockdown – Amid growing pressure to reveal details of an exit plan, the government has revealed that there are five factors that  "must be satisfied " before measures can be relaxed. They are:

  • Confidence that the NHS can still provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment across the UK
  • The need to see a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate to be confident we are beyond the peak
  • Reliable data from SAGE that the infection rate has decreased to manageable levels
  • Testing capacity and PPE is in hand to meet supply for future demand
  • Not risk a second peak of infection that overwhelms the NHS

Exit Strategy - no new information has been given on the strategy for easing the lockdown restrictions - the current stance is that decisions will be made when the virus is clearly stabilised. 

The following ‘guesses’ have emerged through various journalists.  These stages will be followed, with careful analysis of the ensuing results,  and a new and more stringent lockdowns issued if necessary

  • Ease restrictions on certain shops and possibly schools
  • Ease restrictions on all shops
  • Ease restrictions on pubs and restaurants
  • Ease restrictions on places of the where crowds gather
  • throughout the whole of this process,  the over 70s and medically compromised will continue to be locked down – this will be until a working vaccine is developed and circulated and/or more reliable testing is available to the whole community.  Present this  looks like being 10 to 12 months away